After several years of sustained downturn, the rubber material market finally ushered in the rally in 2016. Natural rubber prices from the beginning of 2016 about 10,000 yuan (t price, the same below) rose to the end of the year 2 million, the annual shock before the line. Into 2017, the rubber material market is still strong momentum, although the end of January this year, the Chinese New Year, but in January the natural rubber market is still doing well, the price rose about 25%; Tokyo Commodity Exchange natural rubber futures also rose 26%. Then 2017 rubber prices will continue to rise?
The industry believes that there are three major reasons for the natural rubber market. First, the largest natural producer of natural rubber Thailand since December last year to early January this year, has experienced two consecutive large-scale rainfall, resulting in a number of government outbreak of floods, which affected the natural rubber production in January, is expected to The impact of the annual production of natural rubber; second is 2 to 3 months in Southeast Asia production of natural rubber tree into the deciduous period; third is the current price of natural rubber and synthetic rubber upside down, synthetic rubber prices than natural rubber a few thousand dollars, for rubber demand Large tire business, is bound to use natural rubber instead, increase the demand for natural rubber.
It is understood that the performance of synthetic rubber in 2016 is eye-catching butadiene rubber, in January its price as low as 8,000 yuan, to December has been back to more than 20,000 yuan. January 2017, butadiene rubber last year's gains, the price rose as high as 23.34%.
According to the analysis, in August 2016 the state began to implement the policy of overloading led the heavy truck replacement tire surge, is leading to the rubber material market hot one of the reasons. Since the promulgation of the policy, the domestic heavy truck sales were significantly restored in January this year, heavy truck sales reached 82,000, growth of 9%, a substantial increase of 122% year on year, a record high of nearly six years. Heavy truck sales surge driven the whole tire market to pick up, and then drive the increase in natural rubber consumption.
Rubber trade companies optimistic about the rubber market in the first half of this year, but that the second half of the market uncertainties more. Shanghai and Hong Kong Industrial Co., Ltd. General Manager Shen Wei optimistic about the first quarter of the rubber market, while that the Thai government in February 14 and March will be natural rubber throwing storage, the Chinese government has recently the intention of natural rubber rotation reserve, which will rubber The market has a certain impact. Yaji International Trade (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. General Manager Li Zhi and that the first half of the rubber market should be strong up, natural rubber prices are expected to 18,000 to 23,000 yuan position shocks.
As the passenger car tires are the largest users of natural rubber, February 22, the US International Trade Commission will Huaka bus tires "double reverse" to make the final decision, so the results of the market impact of greater uncertainty. January 24 this year, the US Department of Commerce released the United States on the Huaka bus tires "double reverse" final results, including anti-dumping tax rate of 9% and 22.57%, countervailing duty rate of 38.61% to 65.46%. If the results are established, this year China's exports to the US passenger car tires will be blocked.
In addition, the industry that the first half of the tire industry due to the demand for the tire industry, rubber materials market is still strong, traders confidence, the market supply of natural rubber tension, reluctant to sell. The second half of the market support power is relatively inadequate, the main reason is that the 2016 auto market is expected to hot, production and sales were up 14.5% and 13.7%, while the 2017 auto market is expected to increase by about 5%; second 2016 heavy truck orders mainly released The first half of 2017. Nonetheless, rubber traders are still looking at the replacement market for passenger tires.